Rates

Follow Treasury ETFs and the rates that move them.

3.75–4.00%

4.77%

+0.01% MoM

5.15%

+0.14% MoM

3.88%

+0.38%

2.42%

Next Fed decision

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Treasury yields

The market interest rate on 10-year US government debt.

5.15%

+1.17% over the past year

+0.38%

+0.11% MoM

Long-term yields are higher

+0.88%

+0.06% MoM

Long-term yields are higher

+0.54%

+0.03% MoM

Long-term yields are higher

What's coming up

Data releases that move rates.

Full calendar

Treasury ETFs

Follow the Treasury curve, from short-term bills to long bonds.

ETF
SGOV

SGOV

Very low

±0.1%

SHY

SHY

Low

±1.8%

IEI

IEI

Moderate

±4.3%

IEF

IEF

High

±7.2%

TLT

TLT

Very high

±15.9%

Approximate price sensitivity based on duration. Actual moves will vary.

Inflation

How fast prices have risen, next to how fast the market expects them to rise.

What already happened

Latest Sep 2026

Inflation measured from actual prices

3.72%

+0.36% vs last month

2.57%

+0.12% vs last month

What the market expects

As of Sep 2026

Priced into bonds today

2.35%

+0.06% vs last month

2.34%

+0.03% vs last month

Headline CPI

Core CPI

Core PCE

Expected, next 10 years

Expected, 5 to 10 years out

Solid lines are inflation that has already happened. Dashed lines are what the bond market expects next.

Updated Sep 2026

Yields after inflation (real yields)

Treasury yields after subtracting expected inflation. Above zero, Treasuries are expected to outpace inflation.

10Y after inflation

2.42%

0.00% MoM

5Y after inflation

2.17%

10Y yield

5.15%

Expected inflation

2.73%

Yield after expected inflation

2.42%

10Y after inflation

5Y after inflation

Estimated from Treasury yields and the latest monthly inflation expectation, not from TIPS yields.

Updated Oct 19, 2026

The debasement trade

How bitcoin, gold and silver have performed as real yields change.

Bitcoin

Gold

Silver

10Y real yield (right axis, inverted)

1 monthThis year1 year1 year after inflation

Bitcoin

BTC

Gold

GLD

Silver

SLV

Long Treasuries

TLT

The real-yield axis is inverted: the dashed line rises when real yields fall. 1 year after inflation = 1Y price return minus inflation.

Rate-sensitive ETFs

Equity sectors where interest rates have an outsized impact.

KRE

KRE

Regional banks, sensitive to funding costs and the yield curve.

-

0.00%

XLU

XLU

Utilities, whose dividend yields compete with bonds.

-

0.00%

XLRE

XLRE

Real estate, sensitive to borrowing costs and property valuations.

-

0.00%

XHB

XHB

Homebuilders, sensitive to mortgage rates and housing demand.

-

0.00%

Inflation & real assets

Assets commonly used to express views on inflation, real yields and currency debasement.

TIP

TIP

Inflation-protected Treasuries, priced off real yields.

-

0.00%

GLD

GLD

Gold exposure, often sensitive to real yields and the dollar.

-

0.00%

BTC Logo

BTC

Bitcoin exposure, a fixed-supply asset with no yield.

—

0.00%

SLV

SLV

Silver exposure, sensitive to real yields and industrial demand.

-

0.00%